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How a “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) Could Move Yields

The Senate version of BBB would add ~ $3.9 trn to federal debt over ten years—about $400 bn more than the House text and roughly one full year of current Treasury coupon issuance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that higher borrowing costs alone would tack on $441 bn in extra net-interest outlays this decade. That supply-shock lands just as rating agencies have begun to question the U.S. fiscal path: Moody’s cut the sovereign rating to Aa1 in May, explicitly citing BBB-related deficit pressure.

1. Issuance math the market can’t ignore

• Treasury supply: Street estimates show coupon auctions rising $220-$260 bn/yr versus the current run-rate if BBB passes, with the bulk front-loaded in 2- to 7-year tenors.

• Curve impact: PIMCO, among others, expects investors to demand a higher term premium, steepening 2s-30s by ~15–25 bp over the next two quarters.

2. Recent market “stress tests”

The mixed reception shows supply concerns are real, but yield-hungry pension and overseas accounts still step in when the long bond approaches 4.8-5 %.

3. Macro offsets—temporary, not permanent

• Growth pop: Yale’s Budget Lab estimates BBB adds +0.2 pp to real GDP growth in 2025-27, muting near-term recession odds.

• Crowding-out later: By 2034, the same study sees GDP ~3 % below the no-bill baseline as higher rates siphon capital from private investment.

4. Trading scenario if the bill clears Congress

BBB’s fiscal impulse is big enough that duration supply, not just Fed policy, becomes the dominant rates driver once the bill is signed. Expect a steeper curve, choppier auctions and a fatter term premium—but not a disorderly sell-off as long as global real-money demand holds near the 4.8-5% comfort zone. Bond investors will watch Treasury’s August refunding plans and any follow-up deficit-reduction talk for confirmation.

Trump vs. Powell: Round Two

After years of jabs—calling him “a golfer who can’t putt,” “low IQ,” and “a total moron”—President Trump is once again targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is considering naming Powell’s successor as early as this summer, despite Powell having 11 months left in his term.

The shortlist reportedly includes Fed Governor Christopher Waller (seen as the front-runner), former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Normally, a new Fed chair is announced just a few months before the previous term ends. Moving this early signals Trump’s intent to shape monetary policy well ahead of May 2026. The dollar sank to a three-year low on the news.

Why does this matter? Even though Powell’s replacement wouldn’t officially step in until next year, simply naming a dovish successor now could shift market expectations and subtly pressure the current Fed to ease up—especially with Trump making it clear he wants rate cuts to support his economic agenda. Analysts note the “shadow Fed” effect here: messaging from an incoming dovish Chair can overshadow Powell’s cautious stance, nudging yields lower.

Still, any new Fed leader will need to convince the rest of the FOMC to actually cut rates, and there’s no guarantee they’ll pivot quickly with tariffs and election uncertainty still playing out.

The Weight-Loss Soap Opera Continues

Hims & Hers just can’t stay out of the headlines lately. Earlier This week, shares tanked almost 35% after Novo Nordisk pulled the plug on their weight-loss drug partnership – just two months after it started.

Hims had been selling cheaper, compounded versions of popular GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic, which sent its stock soaring last year. Then in February, the FDA said the shortages were over, which meant telehealth companies had to stop selling these compounded versions except in rare cases, and shares dropped again.

In April, it seemed like Hims caught a break when Novo Nordisk (the maker of Wegovy) struck a deal to sell its real Wegovy shots through Hims & Hers at a discount, bypassing insurance. But that love story didn’t last.

Novo now claims Hims & Hers continued selling knockoff versions despite the partnership, accusing them of “deceptive marketing” and putting patients at risk. Hims fired back hard, with CEO Andrew Dudum saying they refuse to be “strong-armed” by any pharma company telling doctors what to prescribe. His exact words: “There’s just no way in hell we’re going to cave on that.”

Analysts say the end of this deal puts Hims at greater legal risk and could weigh on revenue if lawsuits start rolling in. Citi noted that without Novo’s backing, it’ll be a tough fight to keep selling compounded GLP-1 drugs. Morgan Stanley flagged that over half of Hims’ 2025 weight-loss revenue target depends on these compounded doses.

Meanwhile, Novo’s got its own problems, with shares down 20% this year as Eli Lilly gains ground in the weight-loss wars. Still, this breakup hit Hims & Hers way harder, wiping a third of its market cap in a day.

Kalanick’s Pony Ride

Travis Kalanick might be making a comeback—and in classic Kalanick style, it’s bold. The NYT reports that the former Uber CEO is in talks to buy Pony.ai’s U.S. assets, with Uber possibly backing the deal. Sure, Pony’s $5.2 billion valuation mostly reflects its Chinese robotaxi and trucking business, so the U.S. piece isn’t huge dollars-wise. But strategically? It’s a big move.

Quick refresher: Kalanick co-founded Uber and turned it into a global force before getting ousted in 2017 over the company’s toxic culture. He cashed out his stake soon after the IPO, reportedly telling folks he didn’t trust successor Dara Khosrowshahi. Fast forward to today—apparently they’re friends again, and this deal could be their reunion tour.

Uber spent $2.5 billion trying to build self-driving cars under Kalanick before Khosrowshahi axed the project to stem losses. Instead, Uber pivoted to a platform strategy, partnering with companies like Waymo to offer robotaxi rides without burning billions building its own fleet. Pony could be another piece of that puzzle.

If Kalanick pulls this off, he gets a way back into the ride-hailing game just as robotaxis are heating up. And knowing Kalanick’s style, if he’s back in the mix, it’s going to get competitive fast.

Bezos’s Big Fat Venetian Wedding

Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez finally tied the knot this weekend, and if you thought your friend’s destination wedding was extra, think again. The couple got married on Venice’s San Giorgio Maggiore island in front of ~200 A-list guests, including Oprah, Kim K, Tom Brady, and the entire Kardashian-Jenner clan.

The multi-day celebration included Andrea Bocelli’s son singing at the ceremony, a star-studded welcome dinner, and a final blowout bash featuring Usher and DJ Cassidy. Oh, and the closing party? Pajama-themed, naturally. Even Bill Gates showed up in velvet PJs.

But it wasn’t all love and lace. Locals protested the $30M spectacle, accusing Bezos of treating Venice like his private playground and monopolizing limited resources. Greenpeace even dropped a giant banner reading: “If you can rent Venice for your wedding, you can pay more tax.”

Still, with donations to local lagoon preservation groups and massive spending across luxury hotels and restaurants, many Venetians welcomed the influx of billionaire cash. As for Sánchez, she described her Dolce & Gabbana gown fitting simply: “I feel like a princess.” And in true Bezos fashion, the weekend was anything but subtle.

Bumble’s Big Swipe: Can Layoffs Save Love?

Bumble shares jumped 25% this week after the dating app said it’s laying off 30% of its staff – that’s 240 people – to save around $40 million a year. The company plans to funnel those savings straight into product and tech improvements.

Despite the pop, Bumble’s still in rough shape. Shares are down about 18% this year and have crashed over 91% since going public in 2021, when it was valued at nearly $8 billion. Now it’s clinging to a market cap just under $1 billion.

Founder Whitney Wolfe Herd is back as CEO after stepping down last year. She told the NYT, “Bumble needs me back,” adding that watching it fall from its peak was hard.

But it won’t be an easy rebound. First-quarter revenue fell nearly 8% to $247 million, and paying users flatlined at 4 million. Wolfe Herd hopes features like friend matchmaking and new self-love quizzes can turn things around. Analysts aren’t sold on telling users they don’t need anyone when you’re literally a dating app.

Meanwhile, Match Group – owner of Tinder, Hinge, and OKCupid – is also struggling. Tinder’s subscriber count fell from its 2022 peak, though it still pulled in nearly $2 billion last year. Its new CEO says Gen Z isn’t a hookup generation and wants to rebrand Tinder as more relationship-focused.

SPACs are back—because Wall Street never learns

Remember SPACs? Those blank-check companies that turned into Wall Street’s get-rich-quick scheme in 2020? Well, they’re making a comeback. So far this year, SPACs have raised over $11 billion—up from just $2 billion this time last year—and they now make up nearly two-thirds of all US IPO volume in 2025.

Why the sudden revival? IPOs are still sluggish, and SPACs offer companies a shortcut to public markets without the scrutiny of a traditional listing. Big names like Chamath Palihapitiya (yes, again) and Goldman Sachs are jumping back in, while hedge funds are scrambling to lock in deals.

This time around, SPACs are chasing crypto firms instead of EV startups, with one merging with a Bitcoin investment giant and another bringing on Donald Trump Jr. to take an online gun retailer public. Classic.

But before you FOMO in: The median SPAC listing in 2025 is down about 75% from its IPO price. The SEC has tightened rules since the last SPAC bubble popped, but the core incentives haven’t changed. Sponsors still make bank even if retail investors get burned.

SPACs are back, and so is the risk. As always, Wall Street finds a way to repackage old ideas—just don’t expect them to work out any better this time.

Brad Pitt, Lewis Hamilton, and Apple just dropped a $200M thrill ride

Apple’s revving up the box office this weekend with F1, its biggest theatrical debut ever. The racing flick, starring Brad Pitt as a veteran driver making a comeback, is expected to rake in over $55 million in its opening weekend. That’s more than double Apple’s previous record with Killers of the Flower Moon.

Directed by Top Gun: Maverick’s Joseph Kosinski and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, F1 isn’t just another racing movie. Seven-time F1 champ Lewis Hamilton produced it to make sure the racing scenes actually felt real. Apple even strapped dozens of iPhone cameras onto cars to capture angles no broadcast has shown before.

Hamilton says shooting F1 is insanely hard, but Apple’s tech “was so much more advanced than even what we use in the racing world.” The film’s opening is pulling strong Gen Z interest—rare for racing movies—and globally it’s projected to hit $115 million.

Apple isn’t done with Hamilton, either. It’s working on a documentary about his life, from racing rusty go-karts with his dad to dominating Formula One. Think Cool Runnings, but swap the Jamaican bobsled for a Mercedes.

Earnings Bite:

CCL
Carnival crushed Q2 expectations with EPS of $0.35 (vs. $0.24 cons) on record revenue of $6.3B, with adjusted net income more than tripling YoY. FY25 EPS guidance was raised to ~$1.97 (from ~$1.83), topping the $1.87 consensus, and EBITDA guidance was lifted to ~$6.9B. Booking momentum for 2026 is holding steady at 2025 record levels, while customer deposits hit an all-time high of $8.5B. Analysts are mostly bullish—UBS raised PT to $33 citing a clear catalyst path with Celebration Key opening next month, while Morgan Stanley and Truist reiterated Hold/Equalweight. Stifel boosted PT to $34, seeing demand tailwinds and attractive valuation (~9% FCF yield). The cruise giant continues to outperform despite macro noise.

FDX
FedEx Q4 beat EPS expectations ($6.07 vs. $5.81 cons) with revenue of $22.2B, but Q1 EPS guidance of $3.40–$4.00 fell short of the $4.06 consensus, and management suspended its FY26 outlook amid global demand and tariff uncertainty. Analysts trimmed PTs—Evercore to $249, BofA to $245—highlighting near-term risks, while JPMorgan and UBS maintained Buy ratings, viewing the cost program as a longer-term earnings driver. Shares fell ~6% post-print as the market digested the muted outlook despite DRIVE cost savings and Network 2.0 efficiencies. Sentiment remains cautious with hopes pinned on H2 recovery.

GIS
General Mills beat Q4 EPS ($0.74 vs. $0.69 cons) but issued a downbeat FY26 guide with EPS expected to fall 10–15% vs. the ~5% decline consensus expected, citing weak demand in snacks and baked goods along with cost and tariff pressures. Shares slid -5% as analysts trimmed PTs—Evercore to $54, Wells Fargo to $53—with Stifel maintaining Buy but lowering PT to $56, viewing reinvestment as necessary for volume recovery. Concerns remain around GLP-1 impacts, category deflation, and Texas’s proposed additive labeling laws. Bulls argue FY26 guidance is conservative, but visibility remains limited.

MU
Micron posted a monster Q3 beat with EPS of $1.91 (vs. $1.60 cons) and revenue of $9.3B (+37% YoY), guiding Q4 EPS to $2.50 (vs. $2.27 est). Record DRAM revenue and HBM sales up nearly 50% QoQ highlighted strong AI memory demand. Analysts raised PTs across the board—Goldman $200, Wells Fargo $170, UBS $155—citing execution strength, tightening DRAM supply, and transformational HBM growth. CEO Mehrotra said Micron will reach its market share target for HBM earlier than expected. Stock remains a top AI beneficiary despite lack of CY26 HBM detail so far.

WBA
Walgreens beat Q3 EPS estimates ($0.38 vs. $0.34 cons) on revenue of $39B but pulled FY guidance and skipped its earnings call with the Sycamore buyout pending. Cost-cutting, store closures, and headcount reductions have stabilized earnings, but core front-end retail remains weak. Analysts expect little disruption to the $10B take-private deal, with Evercore reiterating its $11.45 PT (deal price). While pharmacy sales rose 8%, long-term growth drivers remain unclear. Shares were up slightly as investors focus on deal closure.

NKE
Nike beat Q4 expectations (EPS $0.14 vs. $0.12 est; rev $11.1B vs. $10.72B), though sales fell -12% YoY with gross margin down 440bps. Results were better than feared, with management highlighting progress on inventory cleanup and stabilizing key franchises (Air Force 1 stable, Dunk still lagging). FY26 guidance implied mid-single-digit revenue declines in Q1, ahead of buy-side expectations for worse, and Holiday order books are up YoY – a positive signal after multiple weak quarters.

Tariffs remain a headwind (~$1B cost impact, 75bps GM drag in FY26), but Nike plans to reduce China sourcing from 16% to high single digits by May 2026 to mitigate impact. Analysts widely raised PTs (Truist $85, Evercore $90, HSBC $80) citing visible sequential improvement, early traction from the “Win Now” strategy, and reacceleration potential in H2/FY26 as innovation ramps and wholesale partners regain confidence.

Bulls see Nike returning to sustainable mid-teens EPS growth as product newness gains traction and digital resets to higher-margin full-price selling. Bears remain cautious on persistent digital softness and macro uncertainty, but the better-than-feared guide and strategic sourcing shifts boosted market confidence, driving shares +13% post-print.

Here’s What Else Happened This Week

• SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son said the firm has upped its total investment in OpenAI to $32B, aiming to become the top “artificial super intelligence” platform provider within a decade. He’s “all in on OpenAI” and expects it to IPO eventually.

• Microsoft is killing the iconic Blue Screen of Death after nearly 40 years. Windows 11 will switch to a Black Screen of Death later this summer, dropping the blue hue, frowny face, and QR code.

• OpenAI has started renting Google’s TPU chips to power ChatGPT and other products, marking its first big move away from Nvidia GPUs.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told shareholders AI and robotics are “multitrillion-dollar opportunities,” driven by autonomous vehicles and robotic factories.

• CoreWeave is back in talks to acquire Core Scientific after last year’s $5.75/shr offer was rejected. With Core Scientific’s market cap now ~$3.7B, any deal would likely come at a premium.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Congress to remove Section 899, known as the “revenge tax,” from the current tax bill.

• Walmart is testing “dark stores” to speed up online delivery. These look like normal stores but are closed to shoppers, stocking top-selling items for fast fulfillment. One is live in Dallas, with Bentonville coming soon.

• Meta is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire voice AI startup PlayAI to enhance its assistant and smart glasses with more natural, real-time voice interaction. Additionally, Meta is looking to raise $29B to fund AI data centers—$3B in equity and another $26B through debt, per FT.

• Amazon is expanding Same-Day and Next-Day delivery to over 4,000 smaller U.S. cities and rural towns by year-end, aiming to match big-city speeds for household essentials.

• Trump terminated all trade discussions with Canada after it announced a 3% digital tax on U.S. tech giants. Tariff details are expected within the next week.

Week Ahead:

It’s a busy but holiday-shortened week with just 3.5 trading days.

Monday wraps up Q2 with China publishing manufacturing PMI, Germany and Italy posting CPI data, and the UK reporting GDP. The ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking also kicks off in Sintra, Portugal.

Tuesday brings US job openings and manufacturing PMI, alongside inflation data from Indonesia and the Eurozone.

Wednesday is quieter with South Korea releasing inflation numbers.

Thursday is the main event: the US June jobs report drops, with Bloomberg Economics expecting unemployment to tick up to 4.3% — potentially driven by cuts in education as funding uncertainty weighs. Note: US equities will close early on Thursday for the July 4 holiday – markets shut at 1:00 p.m. ET (1:15 p.m. for eligible options).

Friday, US markets are closed for Independence Day.

Looking ahead, next Wednesday (July 9) marks Trump’s self-imposed deadline for trade deals before his “Liberation Day” tariffs resume – a potential volatility trigger.

The market enters the week at a key juncture after Friday’s massive Russell rebalance volume and intraday reversal raised caution flags. Window dressing flows could prop up Monday, but with negative July 4 seasonality and tariff risks looming, a short-term pullback wouldn’t surprise.

Should be an interesting week. I’ll be tracking it all on X (formerly Twitter): @wallstengine.