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Happy Tuesday!
Micron just hit a major milestone.
On Tuesday, $MU ( ▲ 19.29% ) crossed $1 trillion in market value for the first time in the company’s history, after the stock rallied about 19% in a single session. The move came as UBS raised its price target on Micron to a Street-high $1,625, up sharply from its previous target of $535.
That new target implies a market value of roughly $1.8 trillion, meaning UBS sees Micron’s valuation potentially more than doubling from here.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri argues that Micron is no longer being valued like a traditional boom-and-bust memory chip company. In his view, AI demand is creating a structural shift across the memory industry, especially in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, where supply remains tight and customers want more predictable access to chips.
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Arcuri wrote that the market could start putting a more “normal” multiple on Micron as investors get more confidence in the durability of its earnings. UBS now expects Micron to generate more than $100 in annual EPS through calendar 2029, with more than $400 billion in free cash flow across the 2027 to 2029 period.
One of the key points in UBS’s call is the rise of long-term supply agreements. According to Arcuri, as much as 30% of industry DDR volumes could soon be locked into agreements at pricing only slightly below current levels. That would give Micron better visibility into future demand and could smooth out earnings in a business that has historically been highly cyclical.
UBS also now expects the DRAM market to remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028, while NAND undersupply could last until the fourth quarter of 2027. The firm also raised its assumptions for high-bandwidth memory pricing, now modeling Micron’s HBM average selling prices up about 50% year over year.
Hyperscalers appear more willing to pay for supply certainty, and that could give Micron a stronger, more predictable earnings profile than it had in past cycles.
Micron shares have now more than tripled this year, and the company has officially joined the trillion-dollar club.
