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The Unseen Bottleneck in the AI Boom:

Everyone loves talking about AI chips. GPUs. H100s. Blackwell. All that.
But here is the weird truth no one is spending enough time on:

AI growth is now being limited by… natural gas turbines.

Not compute. Not capital. Not regulation.
Actual power.

Data centers today are electricity monsters. Two new facilities in Memphis alone are projected to use more power than every household in the city combined. And that is just one example of dozens expected this decade.

So what do utilities do? They turn to the fastest reliable option available: gas-fired power. Not because it’s new. Not because it’s “green.”
Simply because it works and can scale.

Here’s the problem:

If you place an order for a new gas turbine today…
delivery date is around 2030.

Seven years. Not because demand is suddenly spiking, but because for almost a decade, hardly anyone was buying them. Everyone assumed renewables would take over and gas would fade away. So manufacturers slowed production. Talent left the industry. Capacity shrank.

Now tech needs energy fast. The “bridge fuel” is no longer optional.
It is the bridge everyone is trying to sprint across at once.

That creates a strange feedback loop:

• Not enough gas capacity
• Means coal stays alive longer
• Which delays the clean energy transition
• Which raises electricity prices faster than inflation
• Which makes everything from AI to housing more expensive

When you hear “the energy transition,” remember this part:

We are retiring power faster than we are replacing it.

And AI just stepped on the gas pedal.

The market angle here is simple.
Support companies sitting in the flow of power scarcity:

• Grid infrastructure
• Gas turbine makers
• Utility operators with expansion room
• Permitting winners
• Companies guiding tech into nuclear

More GPUs will not solve this.
More power will.

The AI boom is now an energy story.

Gold’s Debasement Moment

Gold just had its worst single-day drop in over a decade this past week. More than 5% down in a day. Headlines made it sound like something broke. But zoom out and you see the larger story:

Gold is still one of the top-performing major assets of 2025. It has beaten the S&P 500. It has beaten Bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis. And it has done that while the economy is supposed to be “fine.” That does not happen by accident.

So what is driving it?

The word you are seeing everywhere right now is debasement.

Debasement means the value of a currency eroding over time. Not because the dollar “crashes,” but because inflation and government spending slowly eat away at purchasing power. Think of every new dollar created as making every old dollar slightly weaker.

People have been worried about this for decades. But what changed this year is who decided to hedge that risk:

Foreign central banks and investors in China have been buying physical gold.
At the same time, some of those same players have been selling U.S. Treasuries.

That’s a big signal. Instead of holding paper promises backed by governments, they’re shifting into a reserve asset that stands outside any political system. Gold has no coupon, but it can’t be frozen, sanctioned, or defaulted on.

That is the core of the debasement story.

The price action fits too. Late-stage bull markets get jumpy. Sharp up moves. Sudden down days. The Nasdaq did that in 1999. Gold did it in 2011. Today feels similar: not the end, but the beginning of the final sprint where volatility gets spicy.

Zoom out from the headline selloff:

• U.S. debt is still climbing fast
• Rates may fall before inflation fully settles
• Demand for a “no-one’s-liability” asset is rising
• China is stockpiling physical metal
• Emerging markets want backup plans outside the dollar

That’s why gold has been strong. Not because Wall Street suddenly discovered shiny rocks, but because global balance sheets are quietly changing.

Could the trade cool off in the short term? Sure. That’s what bull markets do before the last leg higher. But the bigger driver here isn’t mood. It’s math.

As long as governments keep issuing more debt than the economy can absorb without help from the printing press, the debasement narrative isn’t going anywhere.

Gold might wobble day-to-day. The reason people are buying it is not wobbling at all.

U.S. debt hits $38T

The U.S. just crossed $38 trillion in gross national debt. It was $37 trillion in August, which means we added another trillion dollars in roughly eight weeks. That is the fastest $1 trillion increase outside the pandemic years, and it happened while the government is shut down.

Debt milestones have been coming at a steady pace: $34T in Jan 2024, $35T in Jul 2024, $36T in Nov 2024, $37T in Aug 2025, now $38T in Oct 2025. The Joint Economic Committee estimates that over the past year, debt has grown at nearly $70,000 per second.

Rising debt is not just an abstract number. Interest costs are now the fastest-growing part of the federal budget. Over the last decade, the U.S. paid about $4 trillion in interest. Over the next decade, the projected bill is more than $14 trillion if current trends hold. That is money that does not build infrastructure, fund research, or support security. It is the cost of carrying yesterday’s spending.

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OpenAI’s New Identity Crisis:

A new report from The Information says OpenAI is pushing monetization. Inside the company, some staff are saying it has become another $META, with a growth over everything mindset.

The company is adding engagement features like ChatGPT suggesting follow up tasks so users stay chatting longer. At the same time, they are improving daily tools like checking stocks, sports scores and weather.

But they are also adding a feature that will tell users to take a break if they have been using the chatbot for too long, which feels like a strange contradiction.

Even the research group is feeling the shift. Post training work is now being measured on engagement metrics instead of just making the model better. Some employees say that is the clearest sign that OpenAI is turning into the kind of engagement machine it once criticized.

One employee says: We do not want to become engagement farmers.

OpenAI is trying to balance two identities. But that balance is getting harder to hold

That balance is getting harder to hold.

Week Ahead:

(Biggest earnings week of the season + Fed decision + US-China trade talks)

Monday:
– China Industrial Profits (watch for continued industrial rebound)
– US Durable Goods Orders (capex sentiment check)
– Kickoff of US–China trade talks in Malaysia ahead of the expected Trump–Xi meeting later this week — rare earths, chips, and tariffs in focus

Tuesday:
– US Consumer Confidence (market cares given recent dip in sentiment)
– Richmond Fed Manufacturing
– More trade talk headlines likely

Wednesday:
– FOMC Meeting → Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut + balance sheet language is key
– Bank of Canada Meeting → Cut expected
– Australian CPI (Q3)
– Big Tech Earnings After-Hours: MSFT, META, GOOGL, plus CMG, NOW, CAT, BA, VZ, CVS, ETYS, MELI, CVNA, TMDX

Thursday:
– BoJ and ECB Policy Announcements
– US Q3 GDP (flash estimate — may be delayed due to shutdown, but traders will track GDPNow ~3.9%)
– US Jobless Claims
– Megacap Earnings After-Hours: AAPL, AMZN, plus LLY, MA, RBLX, EL, CROX, COIN, RDDT, NET, ROKU, FSLR, TWLO, TEAM

Friday:
– US PCE Inflation + US Employment Cost Index (shutdown may delay some releases, still big focus for Fed cuts outlook)
– China PMIs
– Energy Majors Earnings: XOM, CVX

Should be an interesting week. I’ll be tracking it all on X (formerly Twitter): @wallstengine.